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UN panel gives dire warming forecast

VALENCIA, Spain – Global warming is "unequivocal" and carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere commits the world to an eventual rise in sea levels of up to 4.6 feet, the world’s top climate experts warned Saturday in their most authoritative report to date.
"Only urgent, global action will do," said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, calling on the United States and China — the world’s two biggest polluters — to do more to slow global climate change.
"I look forward to seeing the U.S. and China playing a more constructive role," Ban told reporters. "Both countries can lead in their own way."
Ban, however, advised against assigning blame.
Climate change imperils "the most precious treasures of our planet," he said, and the effects are "so severe and so sweeping that only urgent global action will do. We are all in this together. We must work together."
According to the U.N. panel of scientists, whose latest report is a synthesis of three previous ones, enough carbon dioxide already has built up that it imperils islands, coastlines and a fifth to two-thirds of the world’s species.
As early as 2020, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, residents of Asia’s large cities will be at great risk of river and coastal flooding, according to the report.
Europeans can expect extensive species loss, and North Americans will experience longer and hotter heat waves and greater competition for water, says the report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the Nobel Prize with Al Gore this year.
The panel portrays the Earth hurtling toward a warmer climate at a quickening pace and warns of inevitable human suffering. It says emissions of carbon, mainly from fossil fuels, must stabilize by 2015 and go down after that.
In the best-case scenario, temperatures will keep rising from carbon already in the atmosphere, the report said. Even if factories were shut down today and cars taken off the roads, the average sea level will gradually rise over the next 1,000 years to reach as high as 4.6 feet above that in the preindustrial period, or about 1850.
"We have already committed the world to sea level rise," the panel’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, said. But if the Greenland ice sheet melts, the scientists said, they could not predict by how many feet the seas will rise, drowning coastal cities.
Climate change is here, they said, as witnessed by melting snow and glaciers, higher average temperatures and rising sea levels. If unchecked, global warming will spread hunger and disease, put further stress on water resources, cause fiercer storms and more frequent droughts, and could drive up to 70 percent of plant and animal species to extinction, according to the panel’s report.
The report was adopted after five days of sometimes tense negotiations among 140 national delegations. It lays out blueprints for avoiding the worst catastrophes — and various possible outcomes, depending on how quickly and decisively action is taken.
"The world’s scientists have spoken clearly and with one voice," Ban said, looking ahead to an important climate conference in Bali, Indonesia, next month. "I expect the world’s policy makers to do the same."
The report is intended to both set the stage and serve as a guide for the conference, at which world leaders will begin discussing a global climate change treaty to succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
That treaty, which expires in 2012, required industrial nations to reduce greenhouse gases and a smooth transition to a new treaty is needed to avoid upsetting the fledgling carbon markets.
"This report will have an incredible political impact," Yvo de Boer, the U.N.’s top climate change official, told The Associated Press. "It’s a signal that politicians cannot afford to ignore."
The United States opted out of Kyoto in 2001, arguing that the science was unproven and that the burden of mandatory emission cuts was unfair since it excluded fast-growing China and India. Chief U.S. delegate Sharon Hays said doubts have been dispelled. "What’s changed since 2001 is the scientific certainty that this is happening," she said in a conference call late Friday. She did not indicate that Washington would abandon its policy of voluntary emission cuts. China and India have said any measures impinging on their development and efforts to lift their people from poverty were unacceptable — a point likely to be heeded at the Bali talks. The report offered dozens of measures for avoiding the worst catastrophes if taken together — at a cost of less than 0.12 percent of the global economy annually until 2050. They ranged from switching to nuclear and gas-fired power stations, developing hybrid cars, using more efficient electrical appliances and managing cropland to store more carbon. Ban said a new agreement should provide funding to help poor countries develop clean energy resources, adapt to climate conditions and give them the technology to help themselves. He said he witnessed the devastation of climate change in disappearing glaciers of Antarctica, the deforested Amazon and under the ozone hole in Chile. "These scenes are as frightening as a science fiction movie," said Ban. "But they are even more terrifying because they are rea

联合国专题小组提出可怕的升温预测
西班牙 瓦伦西亚 全球温室效应越来越严重以及大气中的二氧化碳气体已经导致全球海平面最终上升到4.6英尺，星期六，世界著名的气候专家们在最具权威的专业报告中提出紧急的危机信号。
唯有全球紧急行动，才能解决问题。联合国正部长Ban Ki-Moon呼吁美国和中国–世界的两大污染大国–要做出更大的努力来减缓全球气候的改变。
我希望看到美国和中国在该组织中扮演一个更为重要的角色，Ban告诉记者，两个国家都能作出各自的带头作用，
然而他又反对太过于追究责任。
气候的变化使我们地球上宝贵的资源陷于危险当中，Ban说，温室效应的危害如此的严重和广泛，以至于我们只有催促全球共同行动才能解决问题。我们共同处于大气之中，我们必须一起努力。
联合国科学家专门小组的最新的综合报告包括前面提到的三方面的内容，报告所说，过多的二氧化碳已经形成并对各岛屿，海岸线，以及5分之1到3分之2的物种造成了严重影响。
最早在2020年，7500万到2.5亿的非洲人将会遭受到旱灾，亚洲的各大城市将处于江河和海岸泛滥的危机当中，根据报告所述。
今年与al gore同等享有若贝尔奖的关于气候变化的国际研究报告所诉，欧洲会预期有大范围的物种灭绝，北美将经历漫长的炎热天气以及承受更大的获取淡水资源的竞争压力。研究小组表明地球正以一个快速的节奏升温并警告人们有无法避免这场灾难的危险。报告中说，碳的释放主要是由于化石燃料的燃烧，我们应该在2015年使情况稳定下来并且在2015年之后逐步减少化石燃料的使用。

报告说，在最好的局面下，，温度还是会因大气中的碳而继续升高，即使从今天开始关闭工厂，停止在公路上的汽车行驶，海水平均线还是会在1000年内继续逐渐上升，直到达到4.6码，高过工业化以前的任何时期或在1850年左右的海洋平均水平线之上。
我们已经对世界造成海平面上升的危害，专门小组的主席说。 如果格林兰的冰层融化，科学家说，他们将无法预测海平面将上升多少英尺，淹没多少海岸的大城市，雪与冰河的融化，升高的平均温度和上升的海平面让我们看清目前的气候变化真实影响。
如果气候变化未受到抑制，由于强烈的暴风雨以及更为频繁的干燥，全球变温将会扩散饥饿和疾病以及进一步加大水资源的压力，这些后果将会使70%以上的动植物种灭绝，根据研究小组的报告说。该份报告是用了五天时间，经过140个国家的代表紧张的磋商，最终采纳的报告。设计这份蓝图是为了避免着糟糕的异常大灾祸，以及各种不同寻常的后果，该蓝图的实现依靠我们采取快速果断的行动来实现。
“世界科学家们的意识已经达成一致”本说，我们将在希望下个月在印度尼西亚的巴厘岛举行重要的气候会议，我希望世界的政策家们会一同采取行动来保护我们的家园。
这份报告准备设立一个讨论范围并以此作为气候会议的向导，在此会议上各国首脑讲开始讨论1997年的京都议定书以达成一项关于全球气候变化的新协议。
此协议，有效期至2012年，要求各个工业化国家减少温室气体的排放，并且为了阻止让人类受到威胁的二氧化碳环境继续形成，该协议要求各国平稳转变一个符合该条约的新政策。
这份报告将有着难以置信的政策影响。yvo de Boer，联合国高级气候变化官员，告诉美联社，这是一个政治家们不得不顾虑的信号。
美国在2001年否决了《京度议定书》。美国辩解说，既然该报告中负责任的国家排除了快速发展中的中国和印度，那么该结论是不科学合理的，强制执行该合约对于美国来说是不公平的， 美国代表sharon Hays态度明确的说。
“自从2001年以来的改变是合乎情理的事情。” 她在之后的星期五的电话会议补充道。但她并没有提到华盛顿将放弃自由排放的政策。中国和印度也表明，任何侵害他们发展和影响到他们国家生活水平提高的措施将不会接受。该观点在巴厘岛的谈论中似乎受到关注。
如果共同采取行动，联合国以每年减少0.12％的世界经济的代价来治理气候问题，一直持续到2025年。该报告采取了几十种措施来避免这糟糕的大灾难，设立的范围从小的开关大到核电站，以及以煤气为燃料的发电站，发展中各种小汽车，使用更为有效率的电器设备以及扩大绿化面积来储存更多的碳元素。Ben说，新的协议应提供一个基金来帮助贫穷的国家来发展清洁能源，来调节适合气候条件以及提供他们技术来帮助他们。他说，看见消失南极洲的冰河，被砍伐的亚马逊河和在臭氧空洞下的智利。这些场景就如同科幻小说的电影一样恐怖，本说，但是他们更加恐怖，因为他们是真实的

Now there is an Ozone hole in Chile! Yikes!!

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